Statistics of Viral Infectivity in Close Contacts with Covid-19 Patients: A Joint Hospital and Community Adventure in District Nowshera of Pakistan

Abstract

Background: Present study was designed as to determine the probability and relative risk of COVID-19 in suspects with positive contacts history.

Methods: A cross sectional observational study was conducted in district Nowshera on COVID-19 suspects/patients. A total of 365 suspects/patients were included from Feb 10 to April 20, 2020. All the data was uploaded on SPSS version 25 that was designed for this particular study.

Results: Out of total 365, 264(72.3%) were males and 101(27.7%) females. The descriptive statistics of age with mean and standard deviation was 35+16 years. 12/41(29.26%) positive cases were recorded in age>55 years of age. Historyof contact with positive COVID-19 patients was contributing in35/41(85.36%) confirmed cases. There was a significant relation of an increase in age with viral infectivity (Chi-Square=11.48, p=0.009). A strong relationship of positive close contact history with COVID-19 infection (Chi-Square=19.56, p=0.001) was recorded. The probability of the infection with 2019-nCoV in patients with close contact history was 6.12 times more than suspects with no contact history (OR=6.12, 95%CI, 2.5-14.9). The relative risk of infection was (rr=1.75, 95%CI, 1.4-2.07) in suspects with positive contacts as compared to no contacts history (rr=0.28, 95%CI, 0.1-0.6).

Conclusion: The probability, relative risk and correlation of history of contacts with strong suspects/ COVID-19 patients increase the chances of infectivity with 2019nCoV in folds.